Methodology & Transparency Approach

Last updated: 17 August 2026 · How we track and validate the system — and why we are not publishing a headline performance figure right now.

Why this page exists. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) requires any business that publishes earnings or performance claims to be able to substantiate those claims and to disclose how typical results compare to any headline number. We have taken the conservative path: while our methodology is being finalized, we do not publish a headline win-rate, profit-factor, or dollar-per-day figure at all. Instead, we publish the live, unfiltered record and invite you to judge the system from that. If you ever see a performance figure presented as a promised result anywhere on this site, please report it to [email protected].

1. How we track the system — the public ledger

We run a continuous live forward test and publish every signal — wins and losses, nothing filtered — on a public ledger you can audit at /proof/forward-test. The ledger is generated directly from the live signal feed; entries are not hand-picked, re-ordered, or removed after the fact. If a trade loses, it appears. If a trade wins, it appears. Judge the system from the live, unfiltered record — not from a marketing figure.

2. Sample window & data source

  • Sample window: the live forward test is a rolling window. The exact start and end dates are printed on the proof page itself, alongside each entry.
  • Data source: TwelveData OHLC (1H and 1D bars). Where TwelveData is unavailable for a symbol, Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) is used as a fallback. No synthetic data is used.
  • Refresh cadence: the forward test is updated continuously via a scheduled job; the published proof page reflects the most recent successful run.

3. Out-of-sample vs. live

Where we reference back-tests, they are out-of-sample (OOS) and clearly labelled as such: the strategy is evaluated on a price-bar window it was not tuned on, with the in-sample (development) window excluded. This is the industry-standard way to estimate whether an edge is real rather than curve-fit. Back-test results are research artifacts and are always distinguished from the live forward test. We treat the live, public record — not any back-test — as the honest measure of the system.

4. The signal pipeline

Internally we describe our pipeline as three layers (“levers”):

  • Lever 1 — Confluence (CioVoter): fuses BTMM, MMM, FFF, and other strategy signals into a single bias. Currently being validated.
  • Lever 2 — Entry quality gating (QualityGate): filters signals on context (volatility regime, session, ADR). Currently being validated.
  • Lever 3 — Dynamic exits: adjusts stop and target based on intrabar structure.

Because parts of this pipeline are still being validated, we are deliberately not attaching a single performance number to it. The validated and unvalidated layers are tracked openly on the public ledger rather than collapsed into one headline figure.

5. Why we are not publishing a headline number

It would be easy to surface a flattering figure from a favourable slice of data. We have chosen not to. While the methodology is being finalized, any single headline performance number — whether an accuracy figure, a return ratio, or a dollar-per-day target — risks reading as a promise of typical results, which it would not be. So we publish the live record instead and let it speak for itself. Most subscribers will not match the best individual outcomes, and many traders lose money.

6. Results not typical — FTC 16 CFR Part 255

Testimonials, screenshots, leaderboard placements, case studies, and individual P&L examples shown anywhere on Surging Markets are not typical. They are selected because they are noteworthy, which is precisely what makes them non-representative. Per the FTC's Guides Concerning Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising (16 CFR Part 255):

  • Any claim of typical performance must be substantiated — and while methodology is being finalized, we make no such headline claim.
  • Material connections between Surging Markets and any endorser must be disclosed — affiliates do so per our Terms of Service.
  • Testimonials are not a substitute for substantiation; they are anecdotes.

7. Risk of loss

Trading Forex, CFDs, cryptocurrencies, and other leveraged instruments carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. You may lose more than your initial deposit. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing on Surging Markets is personalised financial, investment, or trading advice. Seek independent advice from a licensed professional before making any investment decision.

8. Corrections & how to challenge a claim

If you believe something on this site is presented as a promised or typical result that this page does not support, email [email protected] with the URL and the wording. We will either correct it to transparency framing or remove it within five business days.

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